Surviving the Post-Apocalyptic Market

The major indices hit new rally highs on April 26, just eight days before a systematic failure dubbed the “flash crash” dropped the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 1,000 points in just a few minutes. While the markets bounced as quickly as they fell, the impact of the event still reverberates through the ticker tape over three months later.

According to Barrons, a September report from the Securities and Exchange Commission will conclude that high-frequency trading systems and other institutional traders all backed away on May 6, leaving retailers like you and me to twist in the wind with no quotes to sell. Of course, most of us watching the market that day already know what happened because it was obvious from the bizarre price action.

What we don’t know is how the SEC will restore lost confidence that has triggered a public stampede out of equities in the last three months. Sadly, when it comes to market regulation, this group of regulators is as clueless as were the Bush appointees, and U.S. stocks could get permanently broken if the multiple system failures aren’t fixed soon.

Just consider their initial response, which entailed busting trades that were 60% or more outside the prices posted just before the event. This arbitrary number was clearly designed to have as little impact as possible on the exchanges’ bottom lines. Meanwhile, it’s set to hurt nearly every investor or trader who panicked during the collapse and sold stocks because they suspected a terrorist bombing or a North Korea nuclear launch.

Also consider that this appalling decision destroyed classic risk-management principles that had been in place for generations. As with other trading educators, I tell every student who can’t watch the markets in real time to place stops on all open positions in order to avoid catastrophic losses. This is just good common sense, or so we thought.

We now know those sell orders turned into time bombs on May 6, because there was no liquidity or depth when they got triggered that afternoon. As a result, a huge number of retail players lost a fortune because positions closed out at 40%, 50% and even 59% discounts to prices in force just minutes before the catastrophe.

Many of these folks won’t buy another stock or exchange-traded fund until the SEC and exchanges rebuild confidence in this highly unstable market system. However, that might be an impossible chore. After all, 4,000 points on the Dow in 2009 and early 2010 failed to restore traditional inflows into equities destroyed by the bear market.

The SEC, exchanges and Wall Street want public investors and traders to believe the May 6 event was just a glitch or an aberration that carried little importance, and that it will never, ever happen again. Unfortunately everyone outside of Washington, DC understands that, even with the rumored rule changes, another flash crash is nearly inevitable.

Those of us who earn a living in the financial markets need to recognize this dire threat to our livelihoods, whether it’s a result of speculation or analysis. In a word, despite years of nonsense about level playing fields and cheap market access, the public thinks the game is permanently rigged. As such, they’re getting ready to abandon the markets — and never return.

I believe they’re right, up to a point, because lax regulation and rampaging algorithms have destroyed natural supply and demand. Statistical arbitrage and rebate strategies, instead of fundamental or technical positioning, are now controlling market movement through the lens of unbalanced numbers.

I nevertheless haven’t given up on the market strategies I’ve used successfully for almost two decades now, although it’s been a real tough summer for my bottom line. To respond to this enormous challenge, I’ve made a hundred adjustments to my trading methodologies and firmly believe I’ll prosper once the dust finally settles.

These modifications all fall along a line of risk reduction, with an element of guerilla tactics added into the mix. They furthermore capitalize on the financial markets as they really are in the summer of 2010, rather than addressing a fantasy world that exists in trading tutorials and instructional videos, but not on the real live ticker tape.

In no particular order, here are 10 of the techniques that I’m using to survive this perilous post-apocalyptic environment.

1. More Fibonacci: I’ve noticed that Fibonacci retracements are working unusually well these days, despite seemingly chaotic movement in the major indices.

2. Less Alpha: Exchange-traded funds are yielding better profits than are individual stocks because the technical movement is more predictable.

3. More Beta: I’m trading equity breakouts and breakdowns when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit multiday highs or multiday lows, and the rest of the time I stand aside.

4. Less Overnight: I’m doing a ton of day trading and avoid taking positions between 11 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. EDT.

5. More Targeted Risk: I look for just one big play to take home overnight, or over a weekend, instead of buying a basket and risking a reversal in Europe or Asia.

6. Smaller Position Size: I’ve cut down position size across the board and am hitting for singles or doubles, rather than swinging for the fences.

7. More Commodities: I trade more metals, energy and agriculture because the commodity markets haven’t changed much in the last 30 years and the old strategies still work.

8. Less Chasing: I lose money whenever I chase momentum into a position. Therefore, I now spend more time waiting for gaps, magic numbers and “outliers.”

9. More Flipping: Scanning and flipping through the charts is taking twice the usual time because finding profitable needles in the haystack is much harder to do.

10. Less Intermediate: I’ve shut down my position trading account and have taken just two trades since May that I expected to hold for more than two or three days.

August 29, 2010 • Posted in: Wall Street • No Comments

Citigroup (C) Ready To Bounce

Citigroup (C) has been selling off with other big banks, as the impact of financial reform weighs on investor sentiment. The stock is now pulling into support between 3.50 and 3.75 and should bounce strongly soon.

August 23, 2010 • Posted in: ALERT, TA • No Comments

Amazon (AMZN) Turns The Corner

Amazon (AMZN) tested the 2010 breakout level near 100 twice and posted a double bottom pattern in July. It’s now rallied up to the June high at 129, confirming the start of a new uptrend. A pullback to 50-day moving average support near 121 to 122 should offer a great buying opportunity.


August 9, 2010 • Posted in: Market Day, TA • No Comments

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) has carved out a trading range, with support in the 70s and resistance at 90. It sold off on Friday, after reporting earnings, but recovered and closed near 88. The stock could challenge resistance this week and finally break out.


August 2, 2010 • Posted in: TA • No Comments

Wide Range Activity

Here are stocks showing unusual trading ranges in Thursday’s session. These often set up nice second day trading opportunities:

Advanced Energy Ind Inc AEIS 17 3.19 25270
Clean Energy Fuels Corp CLNE 16.56 0.88 30147
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares DRV 30.82 -3.97 21939
Education Management EDMC 15.17 -1.55 8996
Eagle Materials Inc EXP 25.72 -1.04 11417
Georgia Gulf Corp GGC 12.9 1.33 6123
Idt Corp Cl B IDT 16.9 1.55 6842
Isilon Systems Inc ISLN 16.38 2.82 33328
Integrated Silicon Sol ISSI 9.05 1.12 8730
Itron Inc ITRI 57.93 -4.8 35579
Janus Capital Group Inc JNS 10.59 1.12 141245
LogMeln LOGM 27.8 -1.99 6849
Electro-Optical Sciences Inc MELA 6.71 0.24 11789
Mercer Internat Inc Sbi MERC 4.79 0.34 3142
Medco Health Solutions MHS 49 -4.33 215655
Mellanox Technologies Ltd MLNX 15.49 -7.45 117326
Netflix Inc NFLX 103.56 -16.09 136039
Sonic Solutions SNIC 7.68 0.78 4126
Solarwinds Inc SWI 12.71 -3.81 90998
Sxc Health Sol Corp SXCI 64.46 -2 10572
TrueBlue` Inc. TBI 12.93 1.85 7040
Tradestation Grp Inc TRAD 6.36 -0.32 13817
Usg Corp USG 13.17 0.09 26531
Watsco Inc WSO 56.72 -3.28 13243
July 23, 2010 • Posted in: Market Day, TA • No Comments

Building Intraday Skills

  1. Have a proactive plan for the first and last hours. Experienced traders can play these periods aggressively, but newer traders should just sit on their hands.
  2. Become a student of time of day tendencies. Markets tend to trend within narrow time windows, while fakeouts take control for the rest of the session.
  3. Choose a set of intraday indicators and then leave them alone. Learn to interpret conflicting information, rather than searching for the perfect signal
  4. Stalk the NYSE TICK, watching for intraday highs and lows that might define an entire session. TICK has a life of its own and will save your neck, if you let it.
  5. Keep one eye on your positions and the other on the indices. When a position moves more sharply than an underlying index, it should continue to do so.
  6. Look for breakouts and breakdowns of 2- and 3-day trading ranges. These short-term swings will tell you if your positions are trending or running in place.
July 16, 2010 • Posted in: Market Mechanics • No Comments

Down on an Up Day

The following stocks sold off on Wednesday, despite the huge recovery rally. Theoretically, stocks that underperform in good market conditions should lead to the downside in bad market conditions. (ETFs have been removed):

Bj’s Wholesale Club Inc BJ 42.72 -0.49 30425
Bruker Corp BRKR 11.15 -0.79 31327
China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd CHU 13.6 -0.07 16702
Cke Restaurants Inc CKR 12.52 -0.01 26128
Cybersource Corporation CYBS 25.47 -0.03 39340
Dollar General Corporation DG 27.95 -0.05 34631
Dollar Tree Stores Inc DLTR 41.61 -1.32 45206
Edwards Life Sciences EW 55.24 -1.36 24881
Fti Consulting Inc FCN 32.14 -11.13 119704
Family Dollar Stores Inc FDO 36.26 -3.18 142611
Inverness Medical Tchnlg IMA 26.5 -0.03 9153
Korea Electric Power Corporation
KEP 12.79 -0.16 10899
Life Technologies Corporation LIFE 45.73 -0.6 38504
The Lorillard Group LO 72.51 -0.14 20253
Martin Marietta Material MLM 85.75 -1.37 14125
New York Times Co The NYT 8.54 -0.03 33112
Perkinelmer Incorporated PKI 19.53 -0.02 26794
Perrigo Co PRGO 56.44 -0.62 23270
Questcor Pharmaceuticals QCOR 9.44 -0.06 5021
Qiagen Nv QGEN 19.13 -0.36 37500
Smithfield Foods Inc SFD 13.91 -0.27 48469
AT&T Inc T 24.33 -0.08 311934
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO 48.64 -0.33 61286
Vulcan Materials Co VMC 43.74 -0.57 21784
Verizon Communications VZ 26.52 -0.09 203096
Waters Corp WAT 63.31 -0.72 17057


July 8, 2010 • Posted in: Market Day, TA • No Comments

Up on a Down Day

The following stocks moved higher on Tuesday, despite broad selling pressure. These fall into two broad categories:  resilient in the face of weakness and short based funds and ultra funds:

Athenahealth ATHN 25.71 0.45 10221
Astrazeneca Plc AZN 48.74 4.02 79664
BP P.L.C. BP 27.67 0.62 676131
DynCorp International Inc DCP 17.46 0.06 24687
DB Gold Double Long ETN DGP 33.39 0.08 14743
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas DUG 74.24 4.35 25306
ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 DXD 30.33 1.51 103061
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x EDZ 48.72 5.11 42121
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Mkts EEV 55.7 4.11 12232
Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares ERY 13.19 1.18 41110
ProShares UltraShort Euro EUO 25.12 0.32 25934
EV3 Inc EVVV 22.4 0.04 37015
Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares FAZ 16.82 1.59 889524
ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF FXP 40.13 2.96 25960
SPDR Gold Trust GLD 121.27 0.18 173234
Gymboree Corp GYMB 42.42 0.92 12301
iShares COMEX Gold Trust ETF IAU 12.14 0.03 32485
Liberty Acquisition Holdings Corporation LIA 9.93 0 802
Annaly Cap Mgmt Inc NLY 17.26 0.02 160110
ProShares UltraShort QQQ QID 19.43 1.37 290679
RCN Corp RCNI 14.83 0.01 4199
ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil SCO 15.06 0.87 16209
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 SDS 36.88 2.11 667547
Smithfield Foods Inc SFD 15.08 0.2 74433
ProShares Short S&P500 ETF SH 54.4 1.63 79876
iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund SHY 84.14 0.04 10434
ProShares UltraShort Financials SKF 22.82 1.58 228462
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd SLXP 38.45 0.04 9554
ProShares Ultrashort Basic Material SMN 43.71 3.36 26375
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate SRS 28.56 1.65 81102
Sybase Inc SY 64.67 0.13 39776
Teva Pharm Ind TEVA 51.98 0.68 102559
iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund TIP 106.99 0.09 6124
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund TLT 101.07 1.09 73406
ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 TWM 22.68 1.59 142941
Technology Bear 3X TYP 9.67 0.95 16351
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP 25.08 0.12 29834
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures VXX 30.79 2.61 355836
Zimmer Holdings ZMH 54.6 0.03 39318
June 30, 2010 • Posted in: Peripherals, TA • No Comments

Playing Post Russell

The following stocks showed unusual volume spikes in Friday’s session. Mean reversion after the Russell rebalancing could trigger buyable pullbacks on the stronger members of this group:

ACE Limited ACE 53.2 0.41 224057
Alcon Inc ACL 151.44 1.9 41210
Accenture Ltd ACN 40.55 3 531599
American Equity Invst Life Hld AEL 11.39 1.37 37837
American Capital Agency Corp. AGNC 28.97 0.53 42618
Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO 13.69 0.19 126382
Alkermes Inc ALKS 13.09 0.87 44080
Alterra Capital Holdings ALTE 19.08 -0.14 88877
Amgen Inc AMGN 56.26 0.11 332973
Ares Capital ARCC 13.1 -0.07 250178
Asiainfo Holdings Inc ASIA 23.07 0.1 58593
Atheros Communications Inc ATHR 29.85 0.36 109559
Atlas Energy Inc ATLS 29.74 0.47 91505
Aerovironment Inc AVAV 21.43 -1.83 29094
American Water Works AWK 21.02 0.22 56513
Acuity Brands AYI 43.99 -0.05 63875
Brink’s Co BCO 20.4 0.22 41734
Blackrock Kelso Cap Corp BKCC 10.16 0.16 60696
Barnes & Noble Inc BKS 16.43 0.49 33219
Berkshire Hathaway Cl B BRKB 81.9 3.04 1092429
Bruker Corp BRKR 13.03 -0.16 50979
Biovail Corp BVF 19.54 0.53 76077
Bally Technologies Inc BYI 35.88 1.06 71715
Cardtronics CATM 12.65 0.87 25259
Cooper Industries Inc CBE 46.68 -0.27 102234
Chicago Bridge & Iron Nv CBI 20.55 0.46 74528
Brightpoint Inc CELL 7.8 0.14 40419
Cinemark Holdings Inc CNK 15.01 0.32 37008
Cogent Systems COGT 9.44 0.03 89119
Covidien Ltd COV 41.95 0.38 331257
CTC Media Inc CTCM 15.62 0.09 40793
Commercial Vehicle Group Inc CVGI 11.72 0.43 37659
Cypress Sharpridge Investments Incorporated CYS 12.75 0.22 67204
Developers Diversified DDR 10.89 0.13 218898
Discovery Communications Inc DISCA 37.63 0.33 206898
Discovery Communications Inc DISCK 32.35 0.15 200949
Euronet Worldwide Inc EEFT 13.31 0.33 24319
Syneron Medical Ltd ELOS 10.9 0.51 52705
Emergency Medical Services L.P. EMS 53.04 -0.95 27036
Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc ENZN 11.43 0.32 26335
E Trade Financial Corp ETFCD 13.03 -0.09 245302
Entercom Communications ETM 10.32 0.01 26589
Eurand N.V. EURX 10.51 0.32 24845
East West Bancorp Inc EWBC 15.92 0.1 190068
Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited EXXI 17.49 0.54 76640
First American Corp FAF 13.67 0.41 87498
Finish Line Inc Cl A FINL 14.76 0.42 46461
Finisar Corporation FNSR 15.77 0.09 136795
Formfactor Inc FORM 11.07 0.21 25584
Fossil Inc FOSL 36.56 -0.13 60244
Fushi Copperweld` Inc. FSIN 9.06 0.23 32333
1st United Bancorp Incorporated FUBC 8.07 0.14 32996
Gardner Denver Inc GDI 48.8 1.57 63667
Georgia Gulf Corp GGC 15.73 0.46 39470
Gsi Commerce Inc GSIC 30.43 1.37 49077
Human Genome Sciences HGSI 24.19 0.06 260625
Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc HLX 11.61 0.61 109300
Zhongpin Inc HOGS 13.05 0.21 37894
H&R Block Inc HRB 15.55 0.59 134409
Harbin Electric Inc. HRBN 17.06 0.09 26453
Houston American Energy Corp HUSA 12.54 0.45 28163
Marinemax Inc HZO 7.65 0.31 27319
L-1 Identity Solutions Inc ID 8.73 0.26 23980
Informatica Corporation INFA 24.81 -0.7 130085
Innospec Inc IOSP 10.28 -0.08 43384
Ingersoll-rand Ltd Cl A IR 38 -0.25 236923
Iridium Communications Inc IRDM 9.99 0.09 58469
Integrated Silicon Sol ISSI 8.35 0.1 40498
Gartner Inc IT 24.5 0.16 57945
Investment Technology ITG 17.44 0.31 40062
Jaguar Mining Inc JAG 10.15 0.48 114110
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc JAZZ 8.32 0.13 23733
Jda Software Group Inc JDAS 23.68 0.49 24095
Carmax Inc KMX 21.35 0.01 425654
Lions Gate Entertainment LGF 7.27 0.27 78918
Grand Canyon Education LOPE 23.5 -0.22 24300
Lululemon Athletica Inc. LULU 41.06 -0.8 76648
Media General MEG 10.8 0.33 23724
Mercadolibre Inc. MELI 58.15 1.3 47237
Mccormick & Company Inc MKC 38.97 0.01 24157
Microsemi Corp MSCC 15.44 0.5 33455
Mindspeed Technologies Inc MSPD 8.28 -0.21 38681
Newalliance Bancshares Inc NAL 11.54 -0.01 29879
Nanometrics Inc NANO 10.92 0.34 26736
WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index NEX.X 190.44 -0.03 2495484
Northwest Bancshares Inc NWBI 12.06 0.32 99560
Oclaro Incorporated OCLR 12.75 0.03 78858
Ocwen Financial Corp OCN 10.58 0.47 33051
Oritani Financial Corp ORITD 10.27 -0.04 41815
Overseas Shipholding Grp OSG 43.26 2.2 26125
Penske Automotive PAG 12.5 0.31 35787
Polycom Inc PLCM 30.51 -0.43 109049
Power-One Inc PWER 7.44 0.56 76969
Regal-Beloit Corp RBC 57.19 -0.57 37371
Regeneron Pharm Inc REGN 24.53 0.06 73884
Richardson Electrns Ltd RELL 9.63 0.52 23619
Research In Motion Ltd RIMM 52.23 -6.35 451243
Retail Opportunity Inv Corp ROIC 9.92 0.17 64766
Rural/metro Corp RURL 8.35 0.34 32040
Sanmina-Sci Corporation SANM 15.25 0.12 123766
Select Comfort Corp SCSS 9.49 0.17 86576
Senorx` Inc SENO 10.98 0.01 27185
Successfactors SFSF 21.94 0.59 27379
Scientific Games Corp SGMS 10.45 0.21 88049
Sirona Dental Systems Inc SIRO 37.37 1.34 24776
Solera Holdings Inc SLH 37.5 0.97 71867
Sonic Solutions SNIC 8.49 0.29 37866
Sohu.Com Inc SOHU 42.02 0.16 28621
Solarwinds Inc SWI 17.92 0.15 30410
Skyworks Solutions Inc SWKS 17.59 0.5 295287
Sxc Health Sol Corp SXCI 73.74 1.17 31169
Sykes Enterprises Inc SYKE 15.63 0.42 23449
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. TC 10.35 0.57 228867
Tesco Corp TESO 13.35 0.62 49493
Thoratec Corporation THOR 43.87 0.21 72498
Tibco Software Inc TIBX 12.56 1.22 142250
Timken Co TKR 28.51 0.7 27644
Tempur-pedic Intl TPX 32.18 -0.08 76218
Targacept TRGT 21.01 0.31 37723
Thomson Reuters Corp TRI 37.48 0.1 220250
Tractor Supply Co TSCO 62.04 -0.46 45628
Tupperware Brands Corp TUP 40.09 1.72 65032
Towers Watson & Co TW 40.54 -1.2 36475
Tyco International Ltd New TYC 37.11 0.38 328120
Ultra Clean Holdings UCTT 8.86 0.07 28639
Net 1 UEPS Technologies New UEPS 14.53 -0.47 63469
Domtar Corp UFS 52.47 0.02 48920
Ultra Petroleum Corp UPL 46.87 0.31 106035
VistaPrint Ltd VPRT 48.95 -0.42 37791
Wonder Auto Technology Inc WATG 8 -0.02 30367
Warner Chilcott Ltd Cl A WCRX 24.3 -0.01 86880
Wabash National Corp WNC 8.45 0.45 81163
Whitney Holding Corp WTNY 10.01 0.13 119893
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 59.1 -0.97 1179938
Xyratex Ltd XRTX 15.37 0.66 48836
June 28, 2010 • Posted in: Market Mechanics, TA • One Comment

Range Expansion Plays for June 14th

The following stocks showed notable range expansion in Friday’s session and could set up a variety of opportunities in Monday’s session:

Arc Sight` Inc. ARST 23.4 31939 3.58
Boston Private Fincl Hld BPFH 6.27 5755 0.5
China Electric Motor Inc CELM 5.55 1553 0.63
Conn’s Inc CONN 7.14 2199 0.73
Canadian Solar Inc CSIQ 10.38 18902 0.59
Delcath Systems Inc DCTH 10.22 38572 1.02
Houston American Energy Corp HUSA 13.47 3005 1.6
US Airways Group Inc LCC 9.93 147998 0.77
Mannkind Corp MNKD 6.5 32312 0.25
Pilgrim’s Pride Corp PPC 7.9 5680 0.77
Perfect World Co Ltd PWRD 25.63 12971 3.17
Sonic Solutions SNIC 9.69 14244 0.24
Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd SOLF 8.11 32600 0.46
Timberland Co TBL 19.37 15273 1.66
June 13, 2010 • Posted in: TA • No Comments